I have frequently stated that I can see the threads of history weave and create the future from the past and the present. Atop the Stoa tonight, I have been reading of a fellow in the U.S. State Department that has had a rather nimble algorithm that has been reliably predicting events and outcomes for many years. He has even used it to apply to past events to test the validity of his program.
One thing I took away from it was that it seemed to always go with the path of least resistance to solve an international issue "peacefully". One example was Kim Il Sung in N. Korea. It states that we should let him have his nukes, since he needs these to shore up his evil regime. Once we back off, he will be less likely to use them and he can then negotiate with us from a position of safety and security. That events will eventually lead to some kind of normalization on the Korean peninsula.
That example is pure crap. I can not abide the slavery of millions of people. If it is within our nations' power to pull millions from slavery then we are honor bound to do so. None of this mushy multicultural crap.
The program also says that we should just let the Middle East be and let them organize their affairs the way they wish to. If this means the destruction of Israel, the genocide of Jews and the enslavement of millions of women who currently drive and are educated then I have a problem with this.
The program also says that much of the instability in the world is the fault of the US being so strong militarily, culturally, economically, technologically, and morally.
Strike three for the algorithm.
An algorithm is simply a complex equation to quantify and solve for variables. The starting variables and numbers are what the creator of the program determines. Plus, I would like to know how you quantify the emotional state of a dictator? How do you quantify the religious zeal of a nation and benchmark that against the cultural desire for independence, i.e. the Islamic cultural conquest of the United States? How do you quantify the human element?
Humans, as a mass, are relatively predictable, but the individual has been known to buck the trend line from time to time. George Washington vs. Napoleon for example. Joan of Arc as a French resistance leader as another.
The future can be predicted and it does not take a computer program to do so. It needs only a person or people who can critically evaluate history in its totality and neutrality. If it has been documented in history that Egypt underwent currency inflation and the god-like rulers then took the measures to fix the prices for goods and services then you can trace forward to see what happened. It failed miserably and the Greeks kicked in the rotten door and conquered them. If Diocletian devalued the Roman currency and then solved the problem with fixing the prices for goods and services then just scroll forward a bit. Yep, failure. The barbarians then kicked in the rotten doors and the Empire fell. Weimar Germany tried to print its way out of debt and inflated the currency. The resulting hyperinflation made life so miserable that the German people begged someone strong like Hitler to save them. They willingly gave away their freedoms by a vote in the Reichstag. He pulled them from an economic nightmare though he delivered them to a very real hell on Earth. Zimbabwe drives of the white farmers that fed the country and placed black farmers on the land who did not know how to farm as well. Now the country imports its food and has had to print its way out of debt. Hundreds of trillions of Z-notes to buy bread. Needless to say the currency has been discontinued.
The United States has embarked upon a policy of inflating its currency to lift it out of debt. The State is seizing personal property and private lands for its own political and economic gain in direct contravention of the Constitution (despite what the black robes say). We murder millions of future taxpayers and innovators in the name of "choice". We rewrite the language to suit a need rather than to reflect the current cultural use of that word for political means. It limits free speech more and more and has embarked on regulation of the Internet with "kill switches" and the power to eliminate web sites that IT deems offensive or subversive.
So, class, how is this going to go for the nation that calls itself the United States of America? If history is any indicator, then it will not end well for the American Republic.
Isaac Asimov, in one of his SF stories, had created the science of studying the future by mathematically quantifying the past. Its peoples, it cultures, its history all in an attempt to predict its future. Even with centuries of development, the mathematics failed because of human free will. Someone always came along and turned their equations to hash. His cabal of scientists ended up having to do what all tyrants throughout history have always sought to do. Remove the individual's free will. A second group was founded secretly to literally control the minds of those who pivot history so that they could MAKE a pre-determined future come to pass.
The Egyptians dominated through religion. The Romans dominated first with the State and then an Emperor (since those pesky Senators and elected Tribunes were not doing it right). The Kings and Queens of feudal Europe ruled through divine right. The Nation State was born by the end of the Renaissance. It ruled the masses by bureaucracy and compartmentalization. The Russian Czar was overthrown by Marxists who then turned its people into the cogs of the Nation State. Even Great Briton had to "share" power with the people via a Parliament.
Only the United States started out with "We the People" having more power than any individual or department in the government. A government that derived both its power and AUTHORITY TO EXIST from the people. Power flowed UP into the State, not DOWN to the masses. The Constitution guaranteed that we could speak our minds and mind our property.
It is only through the IGNORANCE and comfortable laziness instilled by over two centuries of prosperity that has allowed the evil of Progressivism and Marxism to rot our Republic from within. Now the power has been flipped. People can not build a tool shed in their back yard if it interferes with "Nature". Individuals can not speak their minds lest they offend someone. A church can not voice its opinion lest the people of Dearborn go on an animalistic rampage to murder and pile skulls.
Our Founders knew this would be a likely future for our Republic. WHY, you ask? Because our Founders studied history as if it were prologue. They saw many, many ways that Republics had failed throughout history and crafted the Constitution to be self-correcting. They knew that the fires that birthed the new nation would cool and laziness would set in. They understood human nature. They knew that the day would come when a group of Americans would decide that they new better than the Common Man and attempt to FORCE their view of everything on everyone. Lightbulbs, cars, speech, pets, the color of your mailbox, you name it. Just look at the evening news or todays newspaper (they still print those?).
It will take, however, a people who are awake and aware of how we were born to be able to restore our Republic. Much in our culture has been corrupted. It is always easier to take a hand out then to work for yourself. This will be difficult to overcome as there are so many individuals, municipalities, and entire States that are supported only through the Federal dole (i.e. the national taxpayers).
I have faith, though in our Republic. I do believe that the leaders that this nation needs will become visible as the crisis comes to a head.
Faith is all I have since the threads of history are not on our side. You can keep "hope". Hope is lazy.
Live well.
--Zavost
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