Yes, there are issues in the Middle East that will affect us and our children for generations. Yes, we have spent the future wealth of our children and their descendants for no real gain. Yes, the unions threaten to shatter our nation financially with their childish folly in their belief that their contracts are as holy as the Koran regardless of reality. Yes, we have a President of dubious birth who is literally a foreigner to the American experience. Yes, all of that is important and must be dealt with, however, I wish to speak of a time horizon that pushes out a few decades (I hope).
From the Stoa tonight, I'm looking off into the distance at a future China and its role in Global politics. I have stated before that I feel that China is a soap bubble. Big and scary, but very, very unstable. IF it is able to keep its people fed and employed in the years to come and IF China is able to continue to tightly control economic, social, and political development then China will be a very real threat to not just the United States, but to Europe. However, in order for the Chinese to pose a threat to the US, then the US must still have interests outside of our borders. IF the US is able to remain cohesive despite the work of the Progressives, and IF our interests are on par with Chinese interests and IF we have the same interests, then there will be trouble.
The issues in 2020 will likely be similar to what we face today, though likely they will or could be more pronounced:
Energy - Oil and natural gas exploration in and around the United States has been blocked politically for years. Oil companies have already announced that they are processing more oil then they are able to replace through exploration. Unless this changes, America will either rebel or grow poor with cost of transporting goods and services. I do not even wish to get into Coal at this time.
Minerals - The mining of the elements necessary for a technological society is imperative. Rare Earth elements like Lanthanium, Rhenium, and Thorium doubly so. Currently, 95% of the rare earth elements mined come from China. Recently, China announced that it was going to begin a quota system for exporting. This does not bode well for companies that like to incorporate vertical integration into their business plan.
Trade - In the 16th century, the Spanish ruled the oceans of the world. They helped to control piracy, much as the Romans did before them. In the 17th, 18th, and 19th centuries, the British kept the trading lanes, for the most part, open for all the nations of the world. The US took over this role in the 20th and 21st centuries. Piracy is still rampant in the waters of the South China sea. If China is able to create a large navy and if the US can no longer support its current navy (like England and France), then China will be the new guardians of the trade lanes. How do you think this will work?
The causes of war can seem complicated but it generally comes down to a few common denominators. One country wants what the other one has and decides to take it. Another country has interests that are being frustrated by another and decides to remove that interference. Religion drives one culture to hate another culture, and so on. The particulars that actually start that war are irrelevant to this discussion.
So, by 2020, if the US is in a state of ascension and not trying to commit suicide like it is in 2011, then there will be ongoing friction with China. For years, China has been buying out oil fields, rights to mine minerals, trade pacts with most of Africa and so on. They are attempting to lock up these resources for their future expansion. The world can not buy things forever when so many of the Western economies are failing. They are locking up these resources for future political expansion. Even if they do not intend to, they will spread around the world much like the British Empire...mostly by accident. Regional conflicts drew them in bit by bit until they ruled vast lands around the world.
In the future, if the Sudan decides to nationalize Chinese holdings then you can expect the new Chinese aircraft carriers will be making a visit to east Africa and they will not be there for a fly-over. Even today, the Chinese prefer to import their own workers on projects that they undertake in India, Pakistan, and Australia...and they do not always go home when the job is done. I'm sure that the Chinese will continue with this slow colonization around their foreign work sites.
The Chinese do not think like us, nor do they have the same values as we do. They have their own culture that pre-dates that of the West. China has learned, through direct experience, that the weak will be taken advantage of. They had their nation chopped to bits by the western powers (not to mention Japan) due primarily to the fact that they were simply incapable of actual resistance. They are, at this time, mimicking the West and its ways only so that it can protect its culture into the future.
We must not make the mistake of thinking that they have Westernized in any real way. What does this mean for 2020? Let's think about it.
We believe in equality under the law. The Chinese do not have this tradition and feel that it interferes with getting things done.
We believe in the free market. China does not, despite the point that they use it as a tool today. It is not cultural.
We believe that human life is precious. China believes in the collective society.
We believe that moral authority comes from god and then works from the individual to the collective society. China does not believe in a god as we do. They also believe that moral authority starts at the top and moves down throughout society.
Will the trade lanes be clear in the future without a US Navy presence? For Chinese vessels, yes.
Will China control oil, mineral production, and the flow of wealth in the world?
Quite possibly. China does not have a lot of mineral wealth, other than Rare Earth. China needs to depopulate and they can do this through colonization. Colonization will likewise cement their hold on the rest of the productive world. China has demographic challenges, but tapping new wealth through economic and military conquest will alleviate these issues.
They do not feel the need to treat fairly with lesser countries. They do not bend to Islam or Christianity. There is only their interests. An Imam that organizes a crowd in Chinese dominated Yemen (just as an example), will find the town square either dispersed or butchered by Chinese military forces. There will be no world condemnation nor will their be a slobbering media. Anyone who speaks out or tries to organize will be removed. Simple as that. Even if they world does manage a protest, the Chinese will simply ignore it, much as they do today.
Does China fear the US? Today they do and I can only wish that they still will in 2020.
Is conflict with China inevitable? If the US is just strong enough to still project power and influence then I'm sure that we will be drawn into conflict when China steps down and crushes an ally of ours somewhere in the world. If we are just strong enough to start the war, then we will lose it. If China feels that our actions are choking off its access to raw materials or finished products, then they will start a war with us. Remember Japan on the run up to WWII?
Islam will still be a factor, though more negative for us then for them. Nuclear proliferation will still be an issue. Israel will be an issue only in so far as it is used in a game with the greater powers.
Is it inevitable? If America gets its act straight and gets is budget and cultural issues fixed, then I fear it will run flat into a rising, independent-minded China that will not care to listen to us if they do not feel like it. War? Likely, I fear.
If the US succumbs to its budget and cultural issues then we will be far too distracted with internal issues to care what China is doing in Africa or the Middle East. If we do not tap our own resources then we will be an impoverished, indebted nation that will not have a voice in the world of the future.
From the Stoa, I bid you good night.
--Zavost
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