Upon the Stoa tonight I will delv deeper into my thoughts on China, as there as been a few requests that have been made of me to focus specifically on China and as it relates to Japan and the rest of the world.
China, and Chinese policy is complex and multi-layered; plans within plans, agendas within agendas, unknown to most of the Chinese people. I will attempt to untangle this Gordian knot somewhat tonight. I trust it will meet with your approval, if not your critical attention.
China, and the Chinese are ancient. The earliest Chinese cultures arose around the same time as the Indus river valley people (early Sub-continent Indians), the Ur river people, and the Egyptians. They escaped the barbarian invasions, of those earlier times, largly intact while the Indus and the Ur cultures were destroyed. Proto-chinese served as a root for many of the languages of SE Asia and was also the first culture in the area to develop an early written language, possibly one of the earliest written languages in the world.
China really enters Western histories with the Greeks and the Romans. It is possible that the Egyptians were aware of them, but I have not come across any material so far that would indicate this, though I would have to say that it is likely. In that time, there were several dozen kingdom-states spread out around the modern-day footprint of China (excluding Tibet, but including large areas of Korea and SE Asia).
Pre-Islamic Persia had dealings with India, which in turn had dealings and trade with China. The Silk road came into existence at this time.
Ok, ok, just got back from a long trip away from the Stoa and have decided that this needs to be right to the point.
China is currently consuming an ever larger fraction of raw materials, that is materials available via mining and/or fabrication on an annual basis. If the trends continue, China will be utilizing all of the worlds concrete, metals, and other materials just to support its internal economic demands within the next decade or two. Obviously, this is not possible, as the rest of the world will likely not give up its resources willingly.
China must create tens of millions of NEW jobs every year for the people that immigrate into the cities. China already regulates movement within the country; but the peasants are aware of the better life to be had in the cities. They know life can be better and will eventually rise up for a piece of that life. China has already had loads of trouble with them and it will only get worse. The uprisings swinging around the globe these past few months have touched China as well and they cracked down, as I expected them to. They can not tolerate anything that challenges the central committees.
The military is growing increasingly strong with double digit increases in military spending. This makes them both stronger and more independent-minded. Mark my words, the military likely has more pull over there now then they ever have had in the past.
China has bought hundreds of billions of dollars of US debt. Fools. This will hurt them when they need it the most.
China is a rising power and they will be a force to reckon with, but only if they are able to balance all the pressures that are building within their culture and their nation. I do not think that they will be able to control all those divergent forces forever and sooner or later it is all going to come crashing down. The countries all around China may be pulled into the pit with them. I hope not.
It is time to step off the Stoa and get some much needed sleep and rest. More from the Stoa once the teacher has had some sleep.
Live well.
--Zavost
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