Regression

To live in interesting times -- as the saying goes. From the Stoa today I wish to talk about progress and improvement.

The Space Shuttle Discovery is docked to the ISS for the last time it its service life. Obama eliminated the shuttle program and reallocated its funds. He said it will be up to the private sector to waste its time with space. I do agree that the private sector would do it cheaper, safer, and more efficiently then the government, but you can not stop cold turkey like that. He has undone decades of work and research. The resources that were taken away from the shuttle program (and its replacement) will be spent on studying the climate and global warming. Not exactly the original mission for NASA now is it? Regression.

The United States is the only nation to land a man on the moon, and this was done 41 years ago! Once the shuttle program is wound down, then the United States will not have a launch vehicle of its own. We will be grounded, relying on the Russians to get us to orbit on vehicles that first flew in the early 1960's. Regression.

Makers of generic drugs are offering to pay a "user's fee" to the FDA if they would simply do their jobs and either approve or disprove their drugs for clinical use. A "user's fee" to me is simply extortion. However, this seems to be how the Obama administration works in general and the corporations can see this and know what they must do in order to get any business done. This hearkens back to a corrupt Europe and the mafia barons of the 1920's and 30's. Regression.

Dozens of hospitals have requested re-licensing of their anesthesia practices to permit the use of Nitrous Oxide (laughing gas) in the delivery of babies. This was a practice that had all but died out over the last 40 years due to the advances in better forms of anesthesia. Only two hospitals in the nation were still using it. Now, as many as 1/10th will by using it by the end of this year and 1/2 by the end of the next year. Why? Expense and litigation. Reimbursement and red tape. Under ObamaCare, they will no longer pay for epidural or c-sections unless a Federal weenie-tot in Washington D.C. approves. Abortions are fully covered, however...Regression.

As a Gen-X'er in his early forties, I am earning less in unadjusted dollars then my father did when he was my age, despite my having a graduate degree. Factor in inflation and I make much less then he did. Inflation has robbed me of my purchasing power, even if I made more actual dollars then he. My son stands to earn even less since we are on the bubble of major inflationary movements. It should always be the dream of a father to see his son to better then they, however, this will not be the case for me or my son. Regression.

Society in America has improved steadily, with a few hiccups, since its founding. What is going on now is a systemic push to regress our nation. We are dis-incentivised to create wealth, technology, or new practices. New medicines will dry up when there is no longer a huge, bloated government willing to pay for them (insurance companies tend to follow the government suit to avoid lawyers). Technologies that are less invasive, safer, and result in better medical outcomes will not be invented because there will no profit in their creation.

We no longer desire to go to the moon or establish colonies in space. Our automobiles must run on electricity (that is not generated by coal). We must create products that are not made from wood or oil products or that harm the environment in their production, use, or disposal. What is a house and its furnishing going to be constructed of? What will we drive? Economic progress is evil, and all the wealth that has ever been created on the planet must be shared equally, or as equally as the "powers that be" declare it to be shared.

Why will my son not have the opportunies that I had? Why did I not have the same opportunities that my father had? Will I get the life-saving surgery when I'm 80, as my grandfather can now get at 89? Will the government evaluate my "usefulness to society" when I need that new joint replacement or will they say that I was too fat for too long and it is my fault, so, "NO". Will I be able to pay for it out of my own pocket? No, will be the answer. Can I today? I can buy anything I want today as long as I have the money, just as it should be.

Think about those questions and decide if you want to go back and live like the Amish, only we'll be forced to treat our animals better, as they will be our legal equals. Oh, and we will not be allowed to be religious like the Amish, you can not serve two masters, you know. Heck, it sounds like being Amish may be better at this point.

Ponder these thoughts and do your part in creating a free society. I depart the Stoa for the afternoon to contemplate our challenging future.

Live well.

--Zavost

Two Class Society

From the Stoa this afternoon I see the usual press of the Progressives who mangle and mis-use the language to meet their needs. I'll sit on the snowy step today and get a few things off my walking stick.

A Democrat tried to explain that the health care mandated "Penalty" was actually an incentive and not a punishment and hoped that people could see her theoretical distinction between the two. Look lady, the Greeks, and many other languages have precise words for precise meanings. The difficult part, apparently for you is knowing which lines up with which. If your pals in the think tanks, you know, the ones that actually wrote the legislation (and not our legislators, you say?) meant to incentivise the population with a $750 charge for not carrying enough insurance, then perhaps they should have used the word "Incentivise" rather than "Penalty" or "Tax".

Classes. Everything is about class warfare with the Left. There will never be a classless society because there will ALWAYS be someone, somewhere, with more "stuff" and more "influence" then someone else. You know, the whole "have and have-not" crew. In a socialist utopia (full communism) there are two distinct classes in those societies. There are those that have the better stuff, and those that have the basic stuff. Just look at Zimbabwe, North Korea, and China.

What I see in Wisconsin this week, and by extension, all the unionized labor in this country (public or private) is a creation of the eventual Ruling Class. These will be the people with the better paying jobs (if you are in the Party...er, Union, I mean), upper tier health care, you know, the ones that the Unions and Teachers' Unions currently get with no co-pay or deductibles. It's ok, the peons will pay the difference.

When the States all go broke, and the US government goes broke (even with a printing press) the only people that will be solvent will be the Federal government (I know how it sounds, just think about it). It will, by default, be the only entity that can direct resources, both financial and personnel. The States will owe the Feds just as much as the Feds owe China. The States will be forced to do the bidding of the central government lest their funds get cut off. Control. It is always about control and the ability to force reality to bend to someone's will.

The point is that reality bends for no man or woman. The world will go broke and the only people that will have power and influence will be those that have locked up the resources, either through the courts or though military projection. The unions scream that they have contracts. The States must come up with the money. Reality be damned. If the States' governors bend and bow then they will have finished the long walk towards handing the last shred of state's power to the central government. Forget for the moment that collective bargaining against the taxpayer takes the power of taxation away from those that must pay those taxes. I do believe that if this is not unconstitutional it should at least be against the law.

I am always shaking my head at the Drive-by media and the fairy dust they blow into everyones eyes and ears every night. They expect to be part of the ruling class when everything caves in. Play the game or get crushed by the gears, is what is going through their minds right now. I prefer to live with my integrity intact, thank you very much.

I trust my students have been paying attention and realize that a government "For the People, by the People" means, "Hey, mister President, mister Speaker, and you, yes you spoiled school teacher...I AM YOUR BOSS!"

From the Stoa this afternoon, I bid you good day, until the next.

--Zavost

Situational Awareness

From the Stoa tonight I wish to warn people not to focus too much on your pet issues. All are important yet all must be seen in their totality. Human society and progress, the fabric of the world, is woven from a myriad of threads. To see the patterns, one must attempt to take in as much of the bolt of cloth as possible.

Yes, there are issues in the Middle East that will affect us and our children for generations. Yes, we have spent the future wealth of our children and their descendants for no real gain. Yes, the unions threaten to shatter our nation financially with their childish folly in their belief that their contracts are as holy as the Koran regardless of reality. Yes, we have a President of dubious birth who is literally a foreigner to the American experience. Yes, all of that is important and must be dealt with, however, I wish to speak of a time horizon that pushes out a few decades (I hope).

From the Stoa tonight, I'm looking off into the distance at a future China and its role in Global politics. I have stated before that I feel that China is a soap bubble. Big and scary, but very, very unstable. IF it is able to keep its people fed and employed in the years to come and IF China is able to continue to tightly control economic, social, and political development then China will be a very real threat to not just the United States, but to Europe. However, in order for the Chinese to pose a threat to the US, then the US must still have interests outside of our borders. IF the US is able to remain cohesive despite the work of the Progressives, and IF our interests are on par with Chinese interests and IF we have the same interests, then there will be trouble.

The issues in 2020 will likely be similar to what we face today, though likely they will or could be more pronounced:

Energy - Oil and natural gas exploration in and around the United States has been blocked politically for years. Oil companies have already announced that they are processing more oil then they are able to replace through exploration. Unless this changes, America will either rebel or grow poor with cost of transporting goods and services. I do not even wish to get into Coal at this time.

Minerals - The mining of the elements necessary for a technological society is imperative. Rare Earth elements like Lanthanium, Rhenium, and Thorium doubly so. Currently, 95% of the rare earth elements mined come from China. Recently, China announced that it was going to begin a quota system for exporting. This does not bode well for companies that like to incorporate vertical integration into their business plan.

Trade - In the 16th century, the Spanish ruled the oceans of the world. They helped to control piracy, much as the Romans did before them. In the 17th, 18th, and 19th centuries, the British kept the trading lanes, for the most part, open for all the nations of the world. The US took over this role in the 20th and 21st centuries. Piracy is still rampant in the waters of the South China sea. If China is able to create a large navy and if the US can no longer support its current navy (like England and France), then China will be the new guardians of the trade lanes. How do you think this will work?

The causes of war can seem complicated but it generally comes down to a few common denominators. One country wants what the other one has and decides to take it. Another country has interests that are being frustrated by another and decides to remove that interference. Religion drives one culture to hate another culture, and so on. The particulars that actually start that war are irrelevant to this discussion.

So, by 2020, if the US is in a state of ascension and not trying to commit suicide like it is in 2011, then there will be ongoing friction with China. For years, China has been buying out oil fields, rights to mine minerals, trade pacts with most of Africa and so on. They are attempting to lock up these resources for their future expansion. The world can not buy things forever when so many of the Western economies are failing. They are locking up these resources for future political expansion. Even if they do not intend to, they will spread around the world much like the British Empire...mostly by accident. Regional conflicts drew them in bit by bit until they ruled vast lands around the world.

In the future, if the Sudan decides to nationalize Chinese holdings then you can expect the new Chinese aircraft carriers will be making a visit to east Africa and they will not be there for a fly-over. Even today, the Chinese prefer to import their own workers on projects that they undertake in India, Pakistan, and Australia...and they do not always go home when the job is done. I'm sure that the Chinese will continue with this slow colonization around their foreign work sites.

The Chinese do not think like us, nor do they have the same values as we do. They have their own culture that pre-dates that of the West. China has learned, through direct experience, that the weak will be taken advantage of. They had their nation chopped to bits by the western powers (not to mention Japan) due primarily to the fact that they were simply incapable of actual resistance. They are, at this time, mimicking the West and its ways only so that it can protect its culture into the future.

We must not make the mistake of thinking that they have Westernized in any real way. What does this mean for 2020? Let's think about it.

We believe in equality under the law. The Chinese do not have this tradition and feel that it interferes with getting things done.

We believe in the free market. China does not, despite the point that they use it as a tool today. It is not cultural.

We believe that human life is precious. China believes in the collective society.

We believe that moral authority comes from god and then works from the individual to the collective society. China does not believe in a god as we do. They also believe that moral authority starts at the top and moves down throughout society.

Will the trade lanes be clear in the future without a US Navy presence? For Chinese vessels, yes.

Will China control oil, mineral production, and the flow of wealth in the world?

Quite possibly. China does not have a lot of mineral wealth, other than Rare Earth. China needs to depopulate and they can do this through colonization. Colonization will likewise cement their hold on the rest of the productive world. China has demographic challenges, but tapping new wealth through economic and military conquest will alleviate these issues.

They do not feel the need to treat fairly with lesser countries. They do not bend to Islam or Christianity. There is only their interests. An Imam that organizes a crowd in Chinese dominated Yemen (just as an example), will find the town square either dispersed or butchered by Chinese military forces. There will be no world condemnation nor will their be a slobbering media. Anyone who speaks out or tries to organize will be removed. Simple as that. Even if they world does manage a protest, the Chinese will simply ignore it, much as they do today.

Does China fear the US? Today they do and I can only wish that they still will in 2020.

Is conflict with China inevitable? If the US is just strong enough to still project power and influence then I'm sure that we will be drawn into conflict when China steps down and crushes an ally of ours somewhere in the world. If we are just strong enough to start the war, then we will lose it. If China feels that our actions are choking off its access to raw materials or finished products, then they will start a war with us. Remember Japan on the run up to WWII?

Islam will still be a factor, though more negative for us then for them. Nuclear proliferation will still be an issue. Israel will be an issue only in so far as it is used in a game with the greater powers.

Is it inevitable? If America gets its act straight and gets is budget and cultural issues fixed, then I fear it will run flat into a rising, independent-minded China that will not care to listen to us if they do not feel like it. War? Likely, I fear.

If the US succumbs to its budget and cultural issues then we will be far too distracted with internal issues to care what China is doing in Africa or the Middle East. If we do not tap our own resources then we will be an impoverished, indebted nation that will not have a voice in the world of the future.

From the Stoa, I bid you good night.

--Zavost