Saturday, March 27, 2010

Uneven Recovery

Time and time again I keep reading and hearing this drum-beat of "uneven recovery", "fragile recovery", "economy slowly but steadily returning to normal". Simply saying it over and over, and writing newspaper articles about it over and over simply does not make it so.
The ongoing issues with Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Iceland, Great Britain, oh, heck, lets just say Europe, have been described as, "The EU is lagging in the global recovery". What global recovery? The Chinese economy is a soap bubble waiting to pop. They are not "self-sustaining" as yet. Much of their foreign reserves used to be dollars, but they plowed those dollars into Euros as a punishment to the United States. Then the EU melts down and the Euro drops to about $1.33. Ooops, some Red Chinese politician just got sent to an education camp. The dollar is going up in value only because the world is looking for somewhere safe to park their capital.

Can't park too much of it in China. They have a tendency to tell you what you can and can not do with it (hello Google). Can't send it to Russia, those folks will just take it through a fraudulent law suit. Europe will continue to melt down until Germany is the last powerful country. South America? Sure, just ask Chavez to leave you a few bucks.

America really is the last stand on Earth and we have Obama at this time of global need. We are tuning in on ourselves, tearing this country apart while Israel clings to survival. We focus on ourselves while Europe cracks without our leadership (look out for Russia, folks). We argue about health care while China gets ticked that we are wreaking their investment portfolio (there is just something so wrong about that last statement). We are in the middle of a national nightmare and we will not wake up from it until we return to the traditional values of limited government.

That's it. Going back to a limited government will reset us. From that point forward everything else must logically follow. Stronger States's rights, fiscal responsibility (no one to bail you out), rugged individualism. Creativity and enterprise...we need to get back to doing what we do best and that is create the future by leaving the present ALONE.

I had a conversation with a fellow the other day who is so far on the other end of the spectrum he appears red shifted to me (physics people will get that). He went on and on about the Bush tax cuts and the mess all that left Obama. I told him that a tax cut never once led to a deficit. Neither Reagan's' nor Bush's. Not one ever. He then went into a three minute discussion about how taxes were a moral responsibility, a patriotic duty and all that as well. There are obligations, spending obligations that must be met and to cut taxes goes against all that. I told him that the answer was right there in front of him. It is spending that causes deficits, not the tax cut. Do we really need seven programs to do the same thing? How about this; do we need to be doing that thing at all?

We got to get our priorities right and we have to get them right NOW. There is no recovery. I can't stress that enough. Things are fluttering right now. Capital is racing around the world looking for a safe place. Not to make money, but just to be kept whole without being seized by some sovereign nation. The world is insolvent. It has borrowed more money then exists. Several times over I believe. There must be a reckoning. It will hurt.

I am optimistic, though. We are Americans and we know how to make something out of nothing. It is what we are best at. We have known personal liberty and freedom for over 200 years. This is something that the rest of the world can't take pride in. Sure we have a Marxist in the office now trying to "Europeanize" us, but we'll get through it. When nothing is all we have left, then we will build again. Once the economic trauma has burnt through our forest of dead wood (economic and philosophic models of wealth and liberty) we will find the old growth forest of our Founders, alive and well in our hearts.

Then, we will have a recovery.

Sunday, March 21, 2010

The Fundamental Transformation of the United States

Well, the debate is on. The Health Care travesty of bill is being discussed on the Hill. What a fraud. I find it disingenuous to nose count before the debate. If it is a "debate" then I would assume that one can change their mind, right? A debate implies a discussion between rational and educated individuals. Twisting the arm and demanding to know how they are going to vote may be how it is done all the time, but it is still disingenuous. Let's start using words correctly.

Anyhow, the patient is on the table and the ECG is bipping feebly. The patient is bloated and suffering from multiple "progressive" infections that will take its life. The strong individual that took us to the moon in 1969 and built the Empire State Building in 11 months can no longer rebuild the Twin Towers, even when given 10 years to do so. The nation I love, that was built by individuals is surrendering itself to the collective and its political class.

The 'debate' and the outcome of the vote to follow may either be the expected flat line of my nation or the violent fight to persevere against the dark night. Of course, this is how I view it. The Progressives in this nation see this as the birthing pains of their new Socialist, European Utopia.

I'm sure that the 'debate' will not end for real. Despite it's passing, there will be resistance. It will not be completely over. It is in this that I can hope for my country.

Time to wait for the results.

-Zavost

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Brother, can you spare a few bill(ion)s?

Since when did States become such beggars? Where are the proud, sovereign States of the Civil War? Where are the States that were willing the fight, literally, for their independence?

I was a bit behind in my reading and yesterday I came across some articles about how the states are whining to the Feds about the stimulus money running out. Duh, did you think that it was going to last forever? That money, supposedly, was to be used to, oh, I don't know, stimulate your economies and promote job growth. Instead, many of the states used that money to shore up broken budgets and infuse cash (my cash) into wasteful and irresponsible programs.

Did they think that the economy was going to re-ignite just as the money ran out? Silly. You should have used that money to buy time and get your fiscal house in order. Instead all of you, well, about 35 states or so, just continued on your merry spending ways and dug the hole deeper and deeper. Now, not only are you out of money, but we are all in far, FAR more debt now because of it. Swift thinkers, you.

California, Michigan, New Jersey, New York and many others piddled around and fought with each other, fought with the unions, threatened police, schools, and child funding and attempted to pass one tax bill after another to shore up financing. Hello, does the Speckled Muck Ducker really need protecting that bad? Can you perhaps find a budget cut that is meaningful?

I like how people keep throwing around the word, "unsustainable". Well, States and the Feds are doing there best to truly explore the meaning of the word. If "spending is unsustainable" then it will stop. It has to or else you are using the word all wrong (not an uncommon thing these days). Sooner or later debt will get so high that no one will float a State a loan. Bonds will go unsold, Munies and all other sundry debt vehicles will sputter and mold. What will they do then? What program will get cut? What will their tax base look like?

I doubt very much that they have an exit plan. In the military some units would develop GOTH plans for their particular, precarious situation. GOTH stands for "Go to Hell" plan. When it really hits the fan you have to know what your plan is. Right now it appears that states like California, New York, New Jersey, and even my home state of Michigan have a GOTH plan that involves the Feds doling out the dough. Good bye Statehood, then. They will simply become provincial districts of the Federal Government.

When will the grown-ups come home from vacation and restore some sanity to this world? Things are going to be tough for the next several years. Very tough.

The various State legislators really need to put down the legalized dope and face reality.

-Zavost

Saturday, March 13, 2010

By What Right?

I sometimes wonder if anyone has ever really sat back and thought about the morality of the Health Care bill or the entire concept of government services? Of course they have, I'm sure there are hundreds of thousands of people blogging about this stuff every day, so I'm sure I'm not going to be talking about anything new. Thinking out loud about this will help me understand all of this a little better myself, I'm sure.

Is it right for the government to take from one and give to another without the direct consent of the one being taken from? (h/t Mr. Sowell) Of course it is not. If I see a person who is hungry and cold in the street, perhaps I'll give them some money to buy a coat and have a hearty dinner (assuming of course that is what they spend the money on...) That is a moral act. It may make me feel good, and this individual will have their needs met at least for a little while longer. The morality ends when I take food from a street-side vendor to give to this person in need and then take a coat from another who looks like they don't need it. We have just crossed the line from charity to theft.

Simply because a representative government decides I have enough money, that I have enough material goods, and that I have a moral obligation to give of my time, my money, and my property does not make what they are doing moral. It may be legal, I may or may not have voted for them, but it certainly is not moral. Legalized theft never is.

When in our history or upbringing did we come to think that this was a normal way of life? I worked hard to get where I am today. I have significant educational debt (that's another blog) and have taken significant time out of my life (time investment) to gain the position and status among my peers. How can a 17 year old mother of two claim a moral right to my property? Why does a 45 year old drug user have a claim on my earnings? By what reason does the 85 year old widower lay claim to my charity?

They do not and can not claim my property, be it intellectual, material, or temporal. Does that mean that I will step over the 45 year old shivering on the sidewalk? Perhaps not. Does that mean that I will give my grandmother a can opener so that she can open the dog food can (since that is all that conservatives want old people to eat, apparently)? Perhaps, perhaps not. Charity is an individual act. It can not be coerced or it ceases to be charity.

When I was 17 I did not have children. When I turn 45 I'm sure that I will not be a drug user. When I'm 85 I can only hope that I helped my kids become wealthy enough to take in their dear old dad. All of these are choices. Life is nothing but the accumulation and propagation of our choices rippling through time. We choose to be irresponsible with our bodies, be it diet, drugs, or our choice in our partners. Yes, circumstances can seem to be stacked against us and sometime it seems like our choices are limited, but we always have a choice. The problem is our natural inclination to avoid that which is painful or difficult; and this factors into everything we do.

If we lose our job, it is a very hard thing to leave your family, either extended or immediate, to find work elsewhere. It is a very hard thing to kick a drinking or drug habit. Drugs and alcohol claim more futures then just about anything else. They can be over come and you can make something of yourself again. You simply need to make the choice and then carry through. Just ask Glenn Beck. One failed marriage, two alienated children, and a 20 year career in radio flushed because of drugs and alcohol. He now hosts his own radio and TV show. Writes books and is doing good for himself, his second wife, and his two younger children.

Should you be bitter that someone has more money or stuff then you? No, you should seek to emulate them. Don't be jealous, be happy that you live in a country where a falling down drunk and failure has the opportunity to redeem themselves and become productive members of society again.

Money is simply a certificate that represents the work of another. If I make shoes but need meat, I can not give shoes to a butcher who does not need shoes. My intellectual and material efforts are converted into a medium of currency that represents my efforts. If I write poetry for a living, can I expect to have as much currency as a person who operates on people's brains? Most certainly not. To produce a poem, I have to possess natural talent, basic writing supplies, and perhaps a mentor and a few school courses; and with experience I may be able to write good poetry (we can ALL write bad poetry, go ahead and give it a try). If my poetry brings happiness or causes another to be thoughtful then I have just provided a value to that person.

If I can no longer write poetry because of double-vision then my livelihood is in jeopardy. I would need to go to a neurologist or a neurosurgeon to ask them to evaluate my double vision. This person would have to possess a god-given talent and skill for the work that is refined through as much as 18 years of continued education and training. If I need surgery then I must place my faith and my life in the hands of another. Their service to me is my health and my continued progression in my life's work. I will have to give more of my currency to this individual then the one that wrote my get well card from Hallmark. The card is great and may make me feel better, but it did not remove the small tumor from my brain that was making me see double.

When a government official decides that the neurosurgeon has too much money and material possessions and attaches a moral fee to that wealth, then we are setting the table for an act of legalized theft. By what right does the government officer lay claim to my wealth (a representation of my time, effort, and intellect)? Simply representing a collective need is not moral enough. It is not moral at all. Let us assume that I am the wealthiest person in a group of ten. That wealth is not in the form of money, but in an intellectual skill. Let us assume that I am a general physician practitioner. Our little group has become a collective. I buy the food that they grow and the cars that they build. They come in to my office and I treat their bumps, scrapes, and broken bones. Then one day, the other nine decide that health care is a right and not a service. That somehow, somewhere, they are now able to claim a moral right to my services. I no longer have any 'currency' now that my skills have been claimed for the common good. However, does my need now rise to the level where the rest of the collective will take care of me? Doubtful since my profession and existence would have been likely demonized by the rest of the group in order to justify their claim on my wealth. I would either perish or leave the collective. Now where will the grower or builder go when they break a bone? Hello Atlas Shrugged.

Western Europe is well down the road towards self destruction and Obama is determined to rocket past them to the Endgame. The Social Democracies of Europe will collapse, just roll time forward enough. It is inevitable. They have never experienced the life and success that America has experienced. They went from Kings and Emperors to unelected Prime Ministers. Lumping one Social Democracy with another only amplifies the worst aspects of the system. Hello European Union.

America is unique in that here is where the people of Europe came to live life free of the ancient cast system. Only here could they be what they wanted, earn as much as their talents permitted them, and be seen with admiration for their successes. Now, somehow, we have degenerated. We have been infected with Progressive seeds that have taken root and are draining us of our vitality. The vast majority of people only want the best for others, they really do, however, you do it by clearing away the obstacles to success, not granting them womb to tomb care. It may make you feel like you are doing good, but if you really think about it, you are resigning them to an unfulfilled and frustrated life, dependent upon the charity (forced or otherwise) of others. Only America has this history of self-reliance. Only here do we know for certain that the only limits on you are the limits you place on yourself.

No one really thinks any more. Too busy blogging, working, taking care of kids and families to really think about whether what the government is doing is the right thing to do. Forget legal, they crossed that line a hundred years ago. I think the reason why our Founders were as smart as they were is because there was no TV or Radio. No Internet and no telephones. No electric lights and no mechanized transportation.

In that environment, you have plenty of time to talk and to read. You are more plugged in to your community (gossip or current events...your choice). Our Founders were very well read and educated. They wrote to one another and conversed often. They never had to run home to tape Seinfeld. They debated Natural Law and Roman History. They discussed and debated, often times passionately, the differences between a Monarchy and a Representative Republic. Democracy and Greece, tyranny and big government. All of it was fair game. Today we are simply too distracted with ourselves to really think about these things any more. We rely on the inertia of the past to carry us into the future. Thomas Jefferson knew this would happen and felt that every generation would need to have its own revolution to keep the government fresh and responsive.

Unfortunately, we are victims of our own success. We are well fed (fat, even). Our poor, those that live at the 'Poverty Line' live better than 85% of all the other human beings on Earth, yet we continue to cut our own wrists to "care for the poor" in this country.

There will need to be a reset. We will need to relearn the virtues of self-reliance. We will need to relearn the proper role of government in both our country and our lives. I think this is long over due when some politician thinks that they can pass a law banning salt in restaurants. Heck, the EPA is trying to regulate a gas that we exhale for god's sake. It is no wonder that they feel they can now control the amount of salt that we eat, seeing as how the water in our bodies is in the form of salt water...

By what right does the government do this? Does "We the people..." want this? Do we think this is right, sane, and moral?

I guess we will find out in November. I just hope that Pelosi, Reid, and Obama are minimized in their ability to cause lasting harm to my Republic in that time.

--Zavost

Friday, March 5, 2010

False Dawn

I've been having some serious doubts about a lot of things lately. I don't think that I can really believe the Wall Street Journal as freely as I once did. Too many stories that talk about the, 'sluggish recovery'. I'm sorry, but if jobs are still being lost and debt is being piled on and the economy is still not adding jobs (or even optimistic about it) then there IS NO RECOVERY underway. Just because you have slowed your decent to the bottom of the pool does not mean you are not still drowning. Way too many articles trumpeting the good indicators. I'm a very optimistic person by nature. Those close to me would say 'foolishly' optimistic. I'm not feeling this recovery. I'm not seeing it, and I'm not believing in it no matter how much the paper tries to tell me it is underway.

The interest on the national debt is higher than the entire Federal budget in the early 1980's. By the end of this decade, the interest on the national debt will be higher than the current multi-trillion Obama Budget of FY11. Where is this recovery and if it is here, then why must the Federal government continue to run trillion dollar deficits for the next 10 years? Why is that?

Around my corner of the world, State and local governments are scaling back on infrastructure of all types. Parts of cities (like Flint, Michigan) will be dozed and returned to a more horizontal configuration. Others would say those parts of the cities are being abandoned. Heck, they were abandoned years ago, they are just now noticing.

Roads in the counties around mine are being allowed to become gravel again. Cheaper to take care of and with the declining economy there are fewer people using them. Bridges that needed to be replaced are being repaired. Flood control systems are being allowed to decay as well.

Where did the trillions of dollars go that Obama was spreading around? Much of it is still unspent, sitting in a slush fund for the next election. What an illegal use of taxpayer money that is/will be. Why doesn't anyone call them on it? It is one thing to talk about it on the radio, it is quite another to challenge the establishment.

Has anyone noticed that the recent spate of democrat retiring, deaths, and ethics investigations are focusing on those that opposed Obama on the Health bill? What is Obama's problem with black politicians? They seem to go down to defeat with a helpful shove to the curb by the White House.

I don't see a dawn, I see a false dawn. Some economic indicators are looking better, but they are artificial because of the distortion of the data benchmarks by all the government intervention. The numbers need to be reflective of actual economic activity, not the activity spurred by money we don't have. The money will run out shortly. Deflation will set in, like a lowering tide before the tsunami. After that inflation will spike and keep spiking. The FED will pull money back and then the back will break in the economy.

Start thinking about lifeboats. Put canned food away, stash cash and gold (for the love of god, don't give the gold to those companies that are gathering it in...think they are doing it because it looks pretty!!!). Items that can be bartered or converted should be put aside. The basement usually holds a lot of that junk anyhow. Look to your extended family and think about how and who will take each other in. As jobs fall way due to declining economic sectors, you will have many family members out of work. Unemployment (if you can get it) only last so long. Think back to the 1930's. Families took each other in when they had no where else to go. We may all have to live that way again, at least for a few years while the economy, and our culture reset. It will reset and things will get better, but not with anyone like these Marxists running the government.

--Zavost