Thursday, December 17, 2009

Failure can be a good thing.

I was watching a program the other night where an argument was made that more protection means more safety, essentially. Then a point was made about the NFL having the best helmets in sports around the world, yet hardly a week goes by where a player in the league is not hauled off the field with a head injury. It was noted that in the Australian Rugby league, they have far fewer head injuries depite not wearing any helmets at all.

I would like to think that the above scenario reflects the human tendency to be less cautious when they feel that there will be no consequences to their actions. The rugby player knows that they had better not lead with their head or else their hats and glasses may no longer sit straight on their faces. The NFL player thinks nothing of plowing head first into a 400 lb man at 8 miles per hour. The laws of physics and momentum are real.

Looking at the economic fiasco we are in today I keep telling myself the same thing I told myself back in August 2008. Let it burn. All those companies that over-extended credit (ACORN or no ACORN) deserve what they get. Innocent companies that bent to the will of the Fed via Freddie and Fannie should go under. The 7-10 million people that would lose their jobs will have my sympathies that they worked for companies that made poor decisions, but they should lose those jobs.

Heartless, mmmmm?

Not really, no. Remember, Conservatism can be counter-intuitive. In this scenario, all those business failures would have required extensive economic autopsies. The causes of their failures would have lead right back to Federal tampering like a blood trail in the woods. Those members of Congress responsible for being irresponsible would have been labeled as the politicking demagogues that they are. Companies that got into bed with the government to curry favors would have been exposed. Rules that had created the various bubbles that have popped would have been fingered and eliminated.

On the people side, the government may have learned what too much intervention and rules-tampering leads to. Those companies that got "Too Big to Fail" would have broken up into smaller companies or simply gone extinct. A dozen other mid-sized companies or several larger ones that played to the FUNDAMENTALS of business would have scooped up the work left rent open by the elimination of the bigger companies. Those that had been cut during the recession would have found new jobs with the smarter, more savvy companies and be back to work by now. The landmarks would be different, the names would be different but the world of business and finance would have continued. Lending would be back on track...responsibly. Those newer companies would need fresh capital to grow.

Let me be frank. The recession would have been worse than it was and more people would have been out of work. But I'd bet my job on it that is would have been shorter and rebounded rapidly. The new playing field would lead to more successful businesses and a more stable economic climb.

Instead the misery continues, the failed companies continue to limp on retaining talent that could be better employed in a recovery and not fetching BHO' Czars their morning coffee.

More to come...

--Zavost

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